https://www.iandragulet.com/portfolio daily 0.75 2021-06-09 https://www.iandragulet.com/portfolio/modeling-xg monthly 0.5 2021-02-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1610861924939-JQA9IDGYIFNF3AUZGBAG/xG_model_values_2D.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals Figure 10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1611709187368-MLQ3UXF1W1JQFKWDPXCD/HS_shot_classification.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals Figure 2 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1610902066363-MXR23T52F1O73JOTGDND/HS_contour.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals Figure 3 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1611450801404-DIF5568Y07YJ1FQ6C4MK/Log_model_distance.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals Figure 6 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1611639699845-RWZ2W363SUXL947F2IZJ/ROC_AUC.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals Figure 17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1611709651599-GGLV0JESBT5R58JKDLXN/Screen+Shot+2021-01-26+at+5.06.12+PM.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1611594962649-F45NE7ECLKK6F29PUOGH/Screen+Shot+2021-01-25+at+8.59.37+AM.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1611709124526-OVAOZ5MWVXWYJQVVUP6F/Log_shot_graph.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals Figure 4 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1610847863695-S7HXDPXK7EJ4IXEXO71A/Screen+Shot+2021-01-16+at+5.44.05+PM.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1610859253532-1KA2Z132WDS5A61M5ZJ8/Log_fit_distance.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals Figure 7: Note: the number of bins we choose will impact how the trajectory of the data looks on this graphic https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1611356182043-RTOLE661ZNIO93GR1231/Screen+Shot+2021-01-22+at+2.55.53+PM.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals Figure 13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1611447718737-0TD81V8OM0EC2NBDQXY0/threshold_1.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals Figure 15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1611447732945-IUW28PU3UEPZOJW4ZZP1/threshold_02.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals Figure 14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1611278485692-4B6TSKYLK5XFB0KTD3FB/CM_.1png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals Sensitivity =77.8% Specificity= 61.0% https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1610861624362-2SNIXE6R0BYHFUAH1PDH/Log_fit_distance_quad.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals Figure 8 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1611278455550-OXQEE08MTLEQFT7QOQY2/CM_3.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals Sensitivity =19.6% Specificity= 97.4% https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1611594848587-QVI07GT7G00TXMWEK4JW/Screen+Shot+2021-01-25+at+8.59.33+AM.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1611625999322-2V1GLCJ8JF4PXX2D91AY/ROC_1dimensional_model.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals Figure 16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1611709147514-JOR6F1FF82RG0AYE0HA1/HS_shot_graph.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals Figure 1 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1610147453751-LYSYK5AJCRQEAY1GATXB/Screen%2BShot%2B2021-01-08%2Bat%2B6.09.23%2BPM.jpg Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1611453392945-BCXALAJKRUI0V867RWVH/Log_function.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals Figure 5: The logistic function takes any value in the domain (−∞,+∞)and produces a value in the range (0,1). Thus, given a value , we can interpret G(y) as a conditional probability that the shot results in a goal, ()≡Pr[label is 1|]. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1611278513358-FRFGX68R5X0477L5DQXR/CM_02.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals Sensitivity =96.7% Specificity= 19.0% https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1611192902658-V6VCXTVMF3QKI9H5WNY8/CD_xg_contour_2.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals Figure 11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1610990462023-B982VIY4KKQRLQWEBIZL/Screen+Shot+2021-01-18+at+9.20.48+AM.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1611447693175-R34LCDI2HXIKJ5BU7IHZ/threshold_3.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals Figure 12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1610861903454-Q5FUEJAAIH8DFAXLGOV9/xG_model_2D.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals Figure 9 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1611271298489-W7KSZRQQPFOM5AEEDFHC/Model_xg_title_plot.png Portfolio - Modeling Expected Goals https://www.iandragulet.com/portfolio/xg-part1 monthly 0.5 2021-01-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1607477539240-R6O7XLZVLVRR1BMUNYQW/Shot_distribution.png Portfolio - An Exploration of Expected Goals Fig 2: Number of shots distributed by Distance (m) and Angle (degrees). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1607494861878-TF266T6M0MZ7BE68FCXE/Header_violin_plots.png Portfolio - An Exploration of Expected Goals https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1607297474058-92F4LH48THSRPRIORUWZ/xG_model_dist.png Portfolio - An Exploration of Expected Goals https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1607495103597-Q9J1VM30FYY1IAMQLE9I/xG_header_distribution.png Portfolio - An Exploration of Expected Goals https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1607494809264-7PXNCAZR1OEUUYQXUUJ2/Shot_violin_plots.png Portfolio - An Exploration of Expected Goals Fig 3: The distribution of shots based on distance and angle and separated by result. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1609898521025-I3EQBBHTA0DERSSBRLHI/Figure+2021-01-05+194940.png Portfolio - An Exploration of Expected Goals Based on results of all Premier League games since the 1993/94 season https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1607479721296-JNXEX4KNCZXDX29FCALX/Screen+Shot+2020-12-08+at+6.07.13+PM.png Portfolio - An Exploration of Expected Goals https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1607479721473-PLUVIZVELCTC5UHMP1YC/Screen+Shot+2020-12-08+at+6.06.16+PM.png Portfolio - An Exploration of Expected Goals https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1607479722191-DUYBGSNT7M2Y9ONDMIAR/Screen+Shot+2020-12-08+at+6.05.09+PM.png Portfolio - An Exploration of Expected Goals https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1607479722465-B25LTWPHXC7DIYTV552J/Screen+Shot+2020-12-08+at+6.04.15+PM.png Portfolio - An Exploration of Expected Goals https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1607495016539-ZA9H0IVQG6USZWQ34LOH/xG_distribution.png Portfolio - An Exploration of Expected Goals https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1607495271764-O4LXV8BE0E55ZHER2YC9/xG_trend.png Portfolio - An Exploration of Expected Goals https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1607494960428-GT9XU0LASMTCDTA3IF0K/Shot%3AGoal_density.png Portfolio - An Exploration of Expected Goals https://www.iandragulet.com/portfolio/category/Travel monthly 0.5 https://www.iandragulet.com/portfolio/category/Relationships monthly 0.5 https://www.iandragulet.com/portfolio/category/Part+1 monthly 0.5 https://www.iandragulet.com/portfolio/category/Health monthly 0.5 https://www.iandragulet.com/portfolio/category/Part2 monthly 0.5 https://www.iandragulet.com/portfolio/category/Culture monthly 0.5 https://www.iandragulet.com/portfolio/category/Sports monthly 0.5 https://www.iandragulet.com/home daily 1.0 2021-02-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5eb2d59a8746c9483ecc9fe8/1607472751403-1T3A53Q6YWPE2CXEJOFW/xG_model_dist.png Home - Expected Goals A comprehensive walkthrough of football’s most revolutionary and celebrated metric. https://www.iandragulet.com/contact daily 0.75 2020-12-10